vrijdag 18 juli 2014

Predicting the Recession via Narrowing Yield Spread

There is a nice metric to predict a recession of which I talked here.

Basically when the 10 year yield to 3 month T Bill yield spread narrows, you're probably nearing a recession.

This is the status today. Nothing much happening today, but we will see below that something is starting to happen. See chart below from Nowandfutures.com.


And in more detail:


Go here to read the analysis.

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